The outcome of the 2026 Osun State governorship election has continued to generate political debate, particularly over Governor Ademola Adeleke’s return for a second term, the performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the role of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and what the result could mean for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
The election, held on August 15, ended with the Independent National Electoral Commission declaring the incumbent governor and Accord Party candidate, Ademola Adeleke, the winner. Adeleke polled 511,067 votes, defeating APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji by 66,252 votes.
Beyond the numbers, the election has generated discussion about voter mobilisation, political alliances, the influence of national political actors, the conduct of security agencies and INEC, as well as the evolving relationship between voters and political parties.
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Against this backdrop, Afronews spoke with Emmanuel Aiyedun, Executive Director of the Social Economic and Civic Rights Advocacy (SECRA), who monitored the election on the ground. He provides his assessment of what happened during the election and examines the lessons Osun 2026 may hold for the 2027 general elections.
AFRONEWS: What is your overall assessment of the Osun State governorship election?
EMMANUEL AIYEDUN:
Overall, I would describe the election as a significant improvement in terms of the atmosphere around voting and the willingness of citizens to participate in the democratic process. Voters came out to exercise their constitutional right, and in many locations, the process was orderly and peaceful.
For me, one of the most important takeaways is that the people of Osun demonstrated that elections can still be decided through the ballot when voters are sufficiently motivated to participate.
Of course, there were isolated incidents and concerns that should not be ignored. No election is perfect, and the reports of logistical challenges and alleged attempts at disruption in some locations require proper investigation. But these incidents should be viewed within the broader context of an election in which the process ultimately produced a clear winner.
The fact that INEC was able to complete the collation and declare a result that reflected the overall voting pattern is encouraging. Adeleke was eventually declared winner with 511,067 votes, while APC’s Bola Oyebamiji finished second.
AFRONEWS: Critics of Governor Ademola Adeleke argued that he had not done enough to deserve a second term. What is your assessment of his performance?
AIYEDUN:
I do not agree with the argument that Governor Adeleke did nothing during his first term. His administration can point to achievements in areas such as workers’ salaries, pension obligations, road construction and other infrastructure projects.
Payment of salaries and pensions is particularly important because it directly affects thousands of families. Government performance should not only be measured by monumental projects; it should also be assessed by whether government workers are paid regularly, whether retirees receive their entitlements and whether citizens experience improvements in their daily lives.
However, I also believe that a second-term mandate should not be interpreted as a blank cheque. The electorate has given the governor another opportunity, and he must now raise the standard of governance.
The next four years should focus on consolidating infrastructure, strengthening education and healthcare, attracting investment, creating employment opportunities and ensuring that economic growth reaches ordinary residents.
The election victory is therefore both an endorsement and a responsibility. Adeleke now has to prove that the confidence voters placed in him was justified.
AFRONEWS: Some APC supporters argued that Bola Oyebamiji was more qualified and better prepared for governance than Governor Adeleke. How do you respond?
AIYEDUN:
Qualification for political office should not be determined simply by academic credentials or previous appointments. Voters also look at performance, political history, credibility and how a candidate’s previous responsibilities affected ordinary citizens.
Oyebamiji’s experience as a former Commissioner for Finance under the administration of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola gave him considerable exposure to government and public finance. However, the controversy surrounding the payment of half salaries to workers during that administration became a political issue that his opponents repeatedly used against him.
Oyebamiji has previously explained his position regarding that period and his role in government, so I believe the issue should be judged on the evidence rather than political propaganda.
Ultimately, the electorate had the final say. The 2026 result shows that whatever advantages Oyebamiji had on paper were not sufficient to overcome Adeleke’s political mobilisation and support among voters.
AFRONEWS: Did the APC’s failure to accommodate certain influential figures, including former Deputy Governor Iyiola Omisore, contribute to its defeat?
AIYEDUN:
Internal party cohesion is always important in an election, but I would be careful about attributing the APC’s defeat to one individual or one decision.
The bigger issue is reconciliation within the party. The APC needs to examine its relationship with influential politicians and political blocs across Osun State, including former Governor Rauf Aregbesola and other grassroots political actors.
Aregbesola remains a significant political figure in Osun politics because of his historical grassroots network and political structure. Whether one agrees with his politics or not, it would be difficult for any serious political party to completely disregard his influence.
The ADC’s performance also demonstrates that votes can move away from the two major political camps when voters are presented with another credible option.
The lesson for the APC is therefore simple: internal disagreement, factionalism and personality clashes can cost a party an election even when it has the resources and machinery of the Federal Government behind it.
AFRONEWS: How would you rate INEC’s performance in terms of voting, logistics, BVAS, result transmission and collation?
AIYEDUN:
I would give INEC credit for the overall conduct of the election. The commission deserves commendation for managing a highly competitive election and eventually producing a result that was declared without the kind of prolonged uncertainty Nigerians have sometimes experienced in previous elections.
The use of technology, particularly the BVAS and the electronic transmission and public viewing of polling-unit results, also remains important because it gives citizens and political parties an additional mechanism for monitoring the process.
However, INEC must not become complacent. Logistics can still be improved, particularly the deployment of election technology and personnel in locations with unusually high voter numbers.
There were also concerns about the adequacy of BVAS devices in some polling locations. INEC should study the experience from Osun and develop a more flexible deployment system so that polling units with unusually high voter populations can receive additional equipment or personnel.
The commission should also improve contingency planning. When a device develops a problem, there should be a rapid replacement mechanism so that voters are not kept waiting for long periods.
Overall, INEC deserves credit, but the objective should be continuous improvement ahead of 2027.
AFRONEWS: President Bola Tinubu’s role has also generated debate. Does he deserve credit for the peaceful conduct of the election?
AIYEDUN:
The President deserves credit to the extent that he allowed the electoral process to run without overt presidential interference.
The President’s intervention regarding the freezing of Osun State’s accounts by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission also became an important political development before the election. His decision to describe the situation as embarrassing and his subsequent intervention helped reduce some of the tension surrounding the exercise.
But we should distinguish between creating an environment for an election and determining its outcome.
Ultimately, it was the voters who decided the election. Adeleke’s victory cannot simply be attributed to President Tinubu, just as it would be wrong to say that the President personally caused the APC’s defeat.
The real test of democratic leadership is whether the government in power allows citizens to vote freely and whether institutions are permitted to perform their constitutional responsibilities.
In Osun, the voters turned out and made their choice. That is perhaps the strongest message from the election.
AFRONEWS: Before the election, there were reports that Governor Adeleke was considering moving to the APC. What would happen to his political influence if he eventually defects after winning on the Accord platform?
AIYEDUN:
I would advise the governor to be extremely cautious about such a move.
Governor Adeleke contested the 2026 election under the Accord Party and won the mandate of the people through that platform. Any decision to leave the party immediately after the election could create questions about political loyalty and the mandate he received.
Rather than focusing on defection, I believe the governor should concentrate on building a strong political legacy and delivering on his campaign promises.
If he decides to remain with Accord and strengthen its structure, he could potentially demonstrate that a smaller political platform can win a major governorship election through grassroots mobilisation.
The governor should therefore be guided by the interests of Osun people rather than short-term political calculations.
AFRONEWS: Would you be surprised if APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji challenges the result at the election tribunal?
AIYEDUN:
No, I would not be surprised. In fact, any candidate who believes that the election was substantially flawed has a constitutional right to seek judicial redress.
That is an important part of democracy. An election tribunal provides an opportunity for all sides to present evidence and allow the judiciary to determine whether the election complied with the law.
However, the burden will be on whoever challenges the result to present credible evidence capable of establishing substantial irregularities.
If the election was properly conducted, the judicial process will only strengthen the legitimacy of the eventual winner. If there were serious irregularities, the courts should equally have the freedom to address them.
So I would not describe a tribunal challenge as an attack on democracy. A peaceful legal challenge is far preferable to violence or extra-legal attempts to overturn an election.
AFRONEWS: We witnessed allegations of vote-buying, but there were also claims that some voters collected money and still voted for their preferred candidates. Can this become a way of defeating vote-buying?
AIYEDUN:
Absolutely not. We should not normalise vote-buying simply because voters sometimes collect money and vote according to their conscience.
Vote-buying remains a threat to democracy because it turns elections into transactions and gives politicians an incentive to target citizens who are economically vulnerable.
The real solution is to reduce the economic desperation that makes voters susceptible to financial inducements.
Government must deliver better education, healthcare, roads, electricity, employment opportunities and social protection. When citizens have a stronger economic foundation, a politician offering a small amount of money will have less power to influence their political choices.
Civil society organisations, religious institutions, traditional leaders, the media and electoral authorities also have important roles to play in voter education.
We should be working towards an electoral culture where citizens ask candidates: ‘What will you do for us?’ rather than ‘How much are you giving us?’
AFRONEWS: Nigeria has now had several closely watched off-cycle governorship elections. How hopeful are you that the 2027 general election will be peaceful, free and credible?
AIYEDUN:
The 2027 general election will be a much bigger test because it involves the entire federation and includes the presidential, National Assembly and state-level elections.
The experience from off-cycle elections can provide useful lessons, particularly regarding technology, logistics, voter accreditation, result transmission and security.
INEC must now begin preparations early. The commission cannot afford to wait until a few months before 2027 before addressing the challenges that emerged from previous elections.
Security is equally important. There must be zero tolerance for the use of security agencies to intimidate voters or interfere with electoral materials. Any officer found attempting to compromise the electoral process should face appropriate sanctions.
There were reports of security-related incidents during the Osun election, including allegations involving electoral materials. Such incidents must be properly investigated rather than ignored.
For 2027, INEC, political parties, security agencies, civil society organisations and the media must work together to ensure that Nigerians can vote without fear.
If INEC builds on the lessons from recent off-cycle elections and political actors accept that elections should be won through votes rather than intimidation, Nigeria can have a much more credible 2027 election.
AFRONEWS: Finally, what is the biggest lesson from the Osun election for Nigeria’s democracy?
AIYEDUN:
The biggest lesson is that voters still matter.
Political parties may have money, structures, influential politicians and access to government machinery, but ultimately, citizens can still determine the outcome when they participate and protect their votes.
The second lesson is that political parties must never take voters for granted. Incumbency does not automatically guarantee victory, and access to federal power does not necessarily translate into electoral success at the state level.
The third lesson is that electoral institutions must continue to improve. INEC has shown that it can conduct a credible election, but it must strengthen the areas where voters, observers and political parties identified weaknesses.
And finally, politicians must understand that democracy is not only about winning elections. It is about what happens after the votes have been counted.
Governor Adeleke now has another opportunity to demonstrate that the confidence voters placed in him was justified. The opposition also has a responsibility to provide constructive scrutiny rather than simply oppose everything the government does.
If all these lessons are taken seriously, Osun 2026 can become more than just another governorship election. It can become a useful reference point for strengthening Nigeria’s democratic process ahead of 2027.
